PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xd12b93F4aE2D6a96BC9621C69a44bE2018a8Dafa-1762899490558

0xd12b93f4ae2d6a96bc9621c69a44be2018a8dafa

Realised P&L
$-1.4k
Volume
$106.5k
Markets traded
474
Open portfolio
$53.94

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded474
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3640.502$27.64+$7.64
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2040.245$6.00+$1.00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.2900.235$4.86$1.14
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3800.085$3.36$11.64
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1700.055$3.24$6.76
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2300.145$3.15$1.85
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2000.055$2.75$7.25
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0700.035$2.46$2.54
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? · Yes0.0900.043$0.48$0.52
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET · Down0.0600.000$0.00$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET · Down0.1120.000$0.00$26.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET · Down0.3050.000$0.00$53.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET · Down0.1620.000$0.00$7.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET · Up0.2110.000$0.00$26.88
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET · Down0.3560.000$0.00$7.97

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-16 23:09Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.2899999681$6.00
06-16 23:09Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?BUY0.05$2.00
06-16 23:04Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.3636363636$20.00
05-06 11:48Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY0.209999974$5.00
05-05 14:10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?BUY0.1110000001$1.00
05-05 14:08Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ETBUY0.02$1.00
05-05 14:06Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ETBUY0.3099999622$5.00
05-05 13:43Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ETBUY0.17012882$1.00
05-05 13:42Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ETSELL0.53$8.47
05-05 13:40Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ETBUY0.3126709919$5.00
05-05 13:39Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ETBUY0.08$1.00
05-05 13:38Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ETBUY0.1699998861$1.00
05-05 13:38Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?BUY0.0074756574$1.00
05-05 12:55Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ETBUY0.2099998677$1.00
05-05 12:51Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ETBUY0.1799998704$1.00