0xd12b93F4aE2D6a96BC9621C69a44bE2018a8Dafa-1762899490558
0xd12b93f4ae2d6a96bc9621c69a44be2018a8dafa
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $106.5k
- Markets traded
- 474
- Open portfolio
- $53.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded474
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$360.46at 0.238Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?
- +$189.63at 0.190Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
- +$168.72at 0.404Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
- +$164.31at 0.197Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
- +$146.40at 0.058Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 23:09 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2899999681 | $6.00 |
| 06-16 23:09 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.00 |
| 06-16 23:04 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3636363636 | $20.00 |
| 05-06 11:48 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 05-05 14:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? | BUY | 0.1110000001 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 14:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 14:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.3099999622 | $5.00 |
| 05-05 13:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.17012882 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 13:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | SELL | 0.53 | $8.47 |
| 05-05 13:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3126709919 | $5.00 |
| 05-05 13:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 13:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 13:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? | BUY | 0.0074756574 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 12:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 12:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |