0xD121c2b55e8Ab296ED8954f18E892B62E9c6658b-1761655324163
0xd121c2b55e8ab296ed8954f18e892b62e9c6658b
- Realised P&L
- $262.10
- Volume
- $12.8k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $3.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.175 | $1.75 | −$1.65 |
| Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in September? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.105 | $1.53 | +$0.65 |
| 76ers vs. Cavaliers · 76ers | 0.179 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.57 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs · Trail Blazers | 0.473 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$139.47 |
| Magic vs. Hawks · Magic | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$90.00 |
| Celtics vs. Knicks · Celtics | 0.468 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$137.86 |
| Hawks vs. Magic · Magic | 0.468 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$138.78 |
| Clippers vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$139.49 |
| Lakers vs. Pistons · Lakers | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$112.00 |
| Suns vs. Magic · Suns | 0.516 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.79 |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers · Nuggets | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$228.00 |
| Heat vs. Hornets · Heat | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.50 |
| Bulls vs. Wizards · Wizards | 0.441 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$129.83 |
| 76ers vs. Heat · 76ers | 0.556 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.42 |
| Pelicans vs. Knicks · Pelicans | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.473Pistons vs. Hornets
- +$1.0kat 0.479Trail Blazers vs. Suns
- +$141.01at 0.596Suns vs. Hornets
- +$133.12at 0.709Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies
- +$125.01at 0.399Cavaliers vs. Magic
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 07:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 08-25 10:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 08-25 10:00 | Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $4.60 |
| 07-23 08:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.00 |
| 07-23 08:35 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | SELL | 0.022 | $0.44 |
| 07-23 08:35 | Will US annex any territory in 2026? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.93 |
| 06-23 09:39 | Will US annex any territory in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.13 |
| 04-14 05:58 | Trail Blazers vs. Suns | BUY | 0.41 | $411.31 |
| 04-10 08:40 | Pistons vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.4 | $539.84 |
| 04-09 09:28 | Celtics vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.39 | $112.72 |
| 04-08 09:53 | Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.4 | $115.68 |
| 04-07 07:40 | Bulls vs. Wizards | BUY | 0.34 | $97.96 |
| 04-06 09:15 | Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.91 | $208.17 |
| 04-03 07:27 | Bulls vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.92 | $178.54 |
| 04-02 07:50 | Suns vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.66 | $116.38 |