0xd11bf72f04ec21c5cbf583c3f65ad6a15070849f
0xd11bf72f04ec21c5cbf583c3f65ad6a15070849f
- Realised P&L
- $4.00
- Volume
- $382.99
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $4.59
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? · Up | 0.410 | 0.825 | $2.01 | +$1.01 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.605 | $1.34 | +$0.34 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.685 | 0.842 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$7.03at 0.227Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$4.38at 0.321Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 12:00 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:32 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6849995376 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:21 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2539999919 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 05:21 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:16 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 01:11 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:02 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:01 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 02:04 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:50 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4419998904 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2059999971 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:42 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7959999331 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 01:20 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:20 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |