0xD10ead48f18f8e5781847F878Fb302B234C1A44a-1770452690941
0xd10ead48f18f8e5781847f878fb302b234c1a44a
- Realised P&L
- $-459.36
- Volume
- $53.1k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $4.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.153 | $4.1k | +$1.2k |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.201 | $498.54 | +$204.30 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.019 | $62.69 | +$43.40 |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? · Yes | 0.180 | 1.000 | $55.56 | +$45.56 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 1.000 | $38.46 | +$28.46 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.003 | $2.31 | −$7.69 |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$249.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.67at 0.152Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$0.12at 0.979Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 27?
- +$-2.79at 0.650Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
- +$-5.68at 0.174Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 07:08 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1186313439 | $294.24 |
| 10-04 06:59 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1179616724 | $2.5k |
| 10-04 01:45 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $19.29 |
| 10-03 10:48 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.08 | $450.00 |
| 10-03 10:47 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.004 | $3.42 |
| 10-03 10:47 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.078 | $4.48 |
| 10-03 10:47 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $13.71 |
| 10-03 10:47 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.18 | $177.49 |
| 03-08 08:56 | Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.0129917598 | $150.00 |
| 02-26 05:43 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $10.00 |
| 02-26 05:32 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1739999867 | $10.00 |
| 02-26 05:30 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.013 | $10.00 |
| 02-26 05:25 | Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 02-26 05:23 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 02-26 05:23 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |