0xD0b84EFe4ceaB58FBf4D406CcFb4E9C22B2ce9e2-1733256814312
0xd0b84efe4ceab58fbf4d406ccfb4e9c22b2ce9e2
- Realised P&L
- $-81.32
- Volume
- $10.3k
- Markets traded
- 190
- Open portfolio
- $25.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded190
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 22? · No | 0.992 | 0.993 | $25.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? · No | 0.998 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.50 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 19? · No | 0.998 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.00 |
| Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.34at 0.830Ethereum all time high in 2024?
- +$0.39at 0.996Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$0.36at 0.994Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?
- +$0.23at 0.992Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$0.22at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 23:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 22? | BUY | 0.9919999962 | $25.00 |
| 10-19 02:45 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.00 |
| 10-16 22:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.997 | $33.10 |
| 10-12 09:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.997 | $29.00 |
| 10-11 07:58 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $17.00 |
| 10-10 12:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 10? | BUY | 0.9979999957 | $32.40 |
| 10-06 04:38 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.50 |
| 10-04 18:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.996 | $15.30 |
| 10-03 22:31 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? | BUY | 0.9939999795 | $21.00 |
| 10-02 01:19 | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9970893144 | $27.00 |
| 09-29 07:55 | Will Solana reach $140 in September? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $28.30 |
| 09-28 02:51 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.9969999559 | $14.00 |
| 09-23 09:40 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.00 |
| 09-20 05:47 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 20? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 15:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 15? | BUY | 0.9979999494 | $17.00 |