Marclacasse1
0xd098b00cf6781b966af5f1c727476a61d88b3307
- Realised P&L
- $-757.85
- Volume
- $61.7k
- Markets traded
- 449
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded449
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$170.16at 0.046Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
- +$64.04at 0.329Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
- +$63.98at 0.102Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?
- +$61.87at 0.102Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$61.05at 0.097Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 19:00 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SELL | 0.2085542836 | $11.30 |
| 07-19 18:59 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $19.27 |
| 07-15 21:14 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.0182996 | $0.91 |
| 07-15 21:05 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.418 | $81.87 |
| 06-19 03:54 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2769626326 | $15.00 |
| 06-18 19:24 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 06-18 19:23 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 06-18 19:17 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1179999906 | $10.00 |
| 06-18 19:17 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1849999901 | $15.00 |
| 06-11 19:14 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.4399999971 | $67.77 |
| 06-09 05:35 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0709999954 | $14.08 |
| 06-09 03:51 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999931 | $20.00 |
| 06-06 19:59 | Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.0408637738 | $3.00 |
| 06-06 16:30 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 06-04 02:28 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $10.00 |