0xD08bc58C93BEa35BaA00Ecea01107669D8a0FD69-1773490146256
0xd08bc58c93bea35baa00ecea01107669d8a0fd69
- Realised P&L
- $-3.76
- Volume
- $27.0k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $15.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 30? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $15.98 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.43at 0.979Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 1?
- +$0.26at 0.986Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February?
- +$0.16at 0.988Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12?
- +$0.08at 0.996Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 17?
- +$0.08at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 09:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $15.95 |
| 07-03 06:51 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $7.96 |
| 06-22 07:58 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.92 |
| 05-19 04:14 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.92 |
| 05-11 08:15 | Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $7.50 |
| 04-25 04:13 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $8.40 |
| 04-23 08:12 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.81 |
| 04-22 09:02 | Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.007 | $9.73 |
| 04-21 08:24 | Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $9.79 |
| 04-20 07:48 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.76 |
| 03-18 03:58 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.972 | $629.86 |
| 03-17 09:07 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.978 | $633.74 |
| 02-28 16:41 | Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? | SELL | 0.999 | $20.20 |
| 02-12 01:06 | Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? | BUY | 0.9859999997 | $19.94 |