Fire13
0xd063422a28763b6ce0b2640f27867ed1e3555ccd
- Realised P&L
- $-440.60
- Volume
- $291.1k
- Markets traded
- 137
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded137
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.471Another US military action against Iran by June 30?
- +$1.1kat 0.748Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?
- +$927.73at 0.662Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?
- +$867.48at 0.559Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition
- +$857.12at 0.106US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 12:56 | Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999055 | $2.06 |
| 08-13 12:51 | Multipli.fi FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.051 | $2.29 |
| 07-24 15:35 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999964 | $22.53 |
| 07-24 15:30 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.725 | $123.25 |
| 07-24 15:29 | Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.8663675832 | $149.66 |
| 07-01 12:41 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0648759512 | $11.82 |
| 07-01 12:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.007 | $12.72 |
| 06-23 13:19 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $8.78 |
| 06-23 13:18 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 06-23 13:17 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $2.94 |
| 06-23 13:17 | Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2379286308 | $37.20 |
| 06-23 13:16 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999205 | $1.63 |
| 06-23 13:15 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 06-23 13:13 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.3533288859 | $5.30 |
| 06-23 13:12 | Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.31 | $9.55 |