Plata-O-Mierda
0xd04b6d4e26272a26145ad3367d48a3dcf694842a
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $106.6k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $40.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.365 | $22.3k | −$3.2k |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · No | 0.495 | 0.475 | $18.5k | −$786.90 |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$352.40at 0.462England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$22.36at 0.346Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?
- +$9.35at 0.442Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.1% and 2.3%?
- +$6.67at 0.010Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?
- +$5.67at 0.412Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 22:10 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 09-15 22:09 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.48 | $3.36 |
| 09-15 22:08 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 09-15 16:02 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.38 | $3.80 |
| 09-15 15:17 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.38 | $11.40 |
| 09-15 15:16 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.38 | $95.00 |
| 09-15 15:16 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.38 | $190.00 |
| 09-15 13:24 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.39 | $155.41 |
| 09-15 13:12 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.39 | $19.50 |
| 09-15 12:43 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.38 | $13.49 |
| 09-15 12:43 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.38 | $141.86 |
| 09-15 12:20 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.3885248332 | $52.41 |
| 09-15 12:16 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 09-15 12:14 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.37 | $13.69 |
| 09-15 12:14 | Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.3659297793 | $1.4k |