muskyj
0xd047391ecb21cc710cf57178e5a63feb541f7678
- Realised P&L
- $24.16
- Volume
- $75.6k
- Markets traded
- 130
- Open portfolio
- $76.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded130
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.325 | $26.00 | +$4.80 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.584 | 0.590 | $21.83 | +$0.21 |
| Will Ethereum hit $3k by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.645 | $19.34 | +$2.85 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.246 | 0.105 | $9.45 | −$12.66 |
| Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? · No | 0.966 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.33at 0.678Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$7.04at 0.006Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$5.77at 0.005Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$4.04at 0.983Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
- +$3.57at 0.850Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 17:24 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.59 | $17.70 |
| 10-31 17:23 | Will Ethereum hit $3k by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.55 | $16.49 |
| 06-06 18:51 | Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $84.66 |
| 06-06 18:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $11.20 |
| 06-06 18:50 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $11.98 |
| 06-06 18:50 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $11.98 |
| 06-06 18:50 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | SELL | 0.968 | $12.58 |
| 06-06 18:49 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.979 | $21.54 |
| 06-06 18:49 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $31.71 |
| 06-06 18:49 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $32.90 |
| 05-26 11:52 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $31.74 |
| 05-26 11:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 05-26 11:51 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $32.80 |
| 05-26 11:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $54.95 |
| 05-26 11:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.99 |