0xD03CdFBAb84De34A9C365BE2198571E6fb5C3F4
0xd03cdfbab84de34a9c365be2198571e6fb5c3f47
- Realised P&L
- $9.4k
- Volume
- $236.8k
- Markets traded
- 124
- Open portfolio
- $5.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded124
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? · No | 0.970 | 1.000 | $3.0k | +$90.00 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.920 | $920.00 | +$90.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No | 0.733 | 0.945 | $768.43 | +$172.30 |
| Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? · No | 0.933 | 0.997 | $259.92 | +$16.64 |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.681 | 0.065 | $19.50 | −$184.79 |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.005 | $15.00 | −$36.00 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.828 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$123.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.317Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$840.00at 0.440US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$768.37at 0.914Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$645.17at 0.828Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
- +$640.00at 0.680Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 09:10 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.999 | $499.50 |
| 09-15 19:36 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | BUY | 0.97 | $970.00 |
| 09-15 19:36 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.9k |
| 09-04 13:15 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $830.00 |
| 06-15 15:21 | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY | 0.78 | $780.00 |
| 05-12 20:20 | Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.958 | $95.80 |
| 04-07 10:45 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.013 | $3.90 |
| 04-07 10:44 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.60 |
| 04-04 16:48 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.903 | $90.77 |
| 04-04 16:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.91 | $1.8k |
| 04-04 16:46 | Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? | SELL | 0.955 | $10.32 |
| 04-03 19:02 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $3.3k |
| 04-02 18:59 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $417.69 |
| 04-02 18:57 | Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $30.35 |
| 04-02 18:56 | Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.972 | $24.86 |