running3713
0xd0384bafd23a46e1708a36703ed3cfd3a17bdc98
- Realised P&L
- $254.20
- Volume
- $33.2k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $280.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.560 | $280.00 | +$30.00 |
| Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.585 | $0.75 | +$0.36 |
| LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner · T1 | 0.351 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? · No | 0.528 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$689.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.490Will Bitcoin reach $68,500 on March 8?
- +$348.46at 0.590Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$224.00at 0.660EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$30.00at 0.880LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5)
- +$17.52at 0.320Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-20 04:25 | EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.66 | $434.83 |
| 03-10 10:54 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 03-10 08:06 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? | BUY | 0.4696648685 | $69.65 |
| 03-08 12:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,500 on March 8? | BUY | 0.49 | $980.00 |
| 03-08 12:43 | Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? | SELL | 0.35 | $204.44 |
| 03-08 08:31 | Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? | BUY | 0.32 | $186.92 |
| 03-02 08:26 | Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.1945133522 | $178.97 |
| 03-01 07:22 | Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2464730933 | $200.00 |
| 03-01 05:12 | Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.19 | $20.64 |
| 02-27 12:53 | Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8803833333 | $1.1k |
| 01-10 11:18 | Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? | SELL | 0.0141335882 | $92.03 |
| 01-10 11:17 | Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? | SELL | 0.0501045101 | $143.16 |
| 01-10 11:17 | Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? | SELL | 0.1162069326 | $144.63 |
| 01-10 08:16 | Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.1606991352 | $200.00 |
| 01-10 08:16 | Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.0699999997 | $200.00 |