graynotebook19
0xcfff4295288ee29f75a38a7028611b7c1e93673d
- Realised P&L
- $101.1k
- Volume
- $4.94M
- Markets traded
- 48,961
- Open portfolio
- $959.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded48,961
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.7kat 0.980Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$5.4kat 0.019Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$5.2kat 0.209Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$4.3kat 0.016Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$4.1kat 0.714Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.81 |
| 09-17 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-17 05:09 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.993 | $9.93 |
| 09-17 04:54 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 39.5 and 40.0 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.989352 | $9.89 |
| 09-17 04:48 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $10.40 |
| 09-17 04:45 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-17 04:45 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 09-17 04:44 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.27 | $10.80 |
| 09-17 04:40 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.88 | $35.20 |
| 09-17 04:36 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.00 |
| 09-17 04:33 | Will A Just Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-17 04:33 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1? | BUY | 0.41 | $16.40 |
| 09-17 04:27 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election? | BUY | 0.973 | $6.81 |
| 09-17 04:25 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 50 million or more views in week 1? | BUY | 0.9772525 | $39.09 |
| 09-17 04:25 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.5334 | $5.33 |