Mi3a08
0xcfe8ad54354c68333784d07d94a5c0bbe0e6f1b2
- Realised P&L
- $1.09
- Volume
- $125.0k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $2.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No | 0.994 | 0.993 | $2.04 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.19at 0.740Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 3?
- +$1.17at 0.745Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 8?
- +$0.17at 0.920Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.14at 0.970Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January?
- +$0.10at 0.950Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on November 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 06:23 | Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.9939999435 | $2.04 |
| 09-13 06:23 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | SELL | 0.971 | $2.40 |
| 08-05 12:19 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.9399999839 | $2.33 |
| 07-27 09:02 | Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31? | BUY | 0.9869999956 | $2.22 |
| 06-04 07:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 6? | BUY | 0.9829999949 | $2.30 |
| 05-22 03:48 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.9769999953 | $1.88 |
| 04-07 14:36 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 8? | BUY | 0.9899996917 | $2.28 |
| 04-02 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 3? | BUY | 0.975 | $2.22 |
| 04-02 06:09 | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.982 | $2.23 |
| 03-19 07:20 | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.9809999925 | $2.23 |
| 03-15 11:51 | Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15? | BUY | 0.9979999523 | $2.22 |
| 02-24 08:20 | Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.9819999964 | $2.18 |
| 01-31 03:13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 31? | BUY | 0.9959995504 | $2.18 |
| 01-09 12:53 | Will Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes? | BUY | 0.9929999972 | $2.16 |
| 12-29 10:16 | Will Kanye visit Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.15 |