atlasnova
0xcfe49cce67142941b6d84b154d00998d5ffeb853
- Realised P&L
- $-307.31
- Volume
- $10.4k
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $40.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? · No | 0.820 | 0.760 | $38.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.110 | $2.20 | −$1.80 |
| Will over 66 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.045 | $0.56 | −$1.89 |
| Will Mamdani say "Family" during his announcement? · No | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.50at 0.770Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
- +$0.80at 0.730Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-06 House election by 20%-25%?
- +$0.66at 0.440Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- +$0.49at 0.780Will Donald Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?
- +$0.40at 0.140Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 07:26 | Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the October meeting? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 09-16 07:18 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $37.00 |
| 09-16 02:26 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $39.00 |
| 09-15 23:21 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.54 |
| 09-15 23:05 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election by 15%-20%? | SELL | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 09-15 22:49 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $21.71 |
| 09-15 20:36 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 09-15 19:24 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 16:48 | Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? | SELL | 0.278 | $13.90 |
| 09-15 16:22 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-01 House election by 35%-40%? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 09-15 08:58 | Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.50 |
| 09-15 08:45 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 09-15 07:28 | Will the Cowboys win the season series against the Commanders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 09-15 07:06 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 09-15 03:54 | Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.27 |