PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

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Traders

0xcfd0ae174ae2607a6a60eaf9eb9676f81594fbc9

Realised P&L
$1.15
Volume
$565.00
Markets traded
15
Open portfolio
$98.27

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded15
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration54.7% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No0.8500.875$24.50+$0.70
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.8630.835$14.20$0.47
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.5000.925$10.18+$4.67
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.8550.880$9.68+$0.28
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1490.160$8.32+$0.56
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8840.906$8.15+$0.20
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.7600.880$5.28+$0.72
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.4710.695$4.86+$1.56
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No0.8600.830$4.15$0.15
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · Yes0.3080.380$2.66+$0.50
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1700.215$2.15+$0.45
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1340.165$2.15+$0.40
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1100.075$1.27$0.59
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2400.120$0.72$0.72
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? · Yes0.2310.000$0.00$1.16

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-16 09:24Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.9$7.20
07-08 15:21Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.2$1.60
07-05 06:01Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?BUY0.308$2.16
06-25 01:25Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?BUY0.86$4.30
06-22 19:47Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.14$6.16
06-20 19:45Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.17$1.70
06-17 13:38Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.86$4.30
06-17 12:35Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.85$23.80
06-15 08:35Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.83$7.47
06-13 06:40Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.85$5.10
06-06 11:00Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?BUY0.884$7.96
06-04 09:06Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.11$1.87
06-01 21:59Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.76$4.56
06-01 21:59Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.24$1.44
06-01 21:59Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.471$3.30