DumbMoney2222
0xcfcabcd88df9e0bebfc4347a86c4686e7cb78b3a
- Realised P&L
- $-7.2k
- Volume
- $1.53M
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m? · No | 0.482 | 0.390 | $1.4k | −$328.80 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.287 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.6k |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15? · Yes | 0.352 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$705.00 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$387.28 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$860.00 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.2kat 0.432Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$4.9kat 0.750Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?
- +$2.5kat 0.795Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.791Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$2.0kat 0.596Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 19:13 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.18 | $3.7k |
| 07-17 04:27 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.584 | $2.9k |
| 07-17 04:24 | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.43 | $860.00 |
| 07-14 22:52 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3525 | $705.00 |
| 07-09 20:39 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.023 | $1.26 |
| 07-09 20:25 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.02 | $325.74 |
| 07-09 20:23 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0250111842 | $3.5k |
| 07-09 20:16 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.029 | $49.30 |
| 07-09 20:15 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.029 | $1.7k |
| 07-07 05:24 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.028 | $1.4k |
| 07-07 05:24 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.028 | $1.1k |
| 07-06 02:43 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.016 | $10.47 |
| 07-04 22:50 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.4k |
| 07-04 22:32 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6497430926 | $1.3k |
| 07-04 22:28 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.033 | $147.77 |