ballena
0xcfc51c0a1a5a78845127d9d9dcb1236f700dc7cf
- Realised P&L
- $-43.6k
- Volume
- $1.99M
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $109.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.365 | $59.8k | +$174.45 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes | 0.446 | 0.445 | $49.5k | −$82.79 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group · Gen.G | 0.645 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.3k |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.6k |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.2k |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.7k |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance · Switzerland | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.7k |
| Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance · Belgium | 0.265 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.3kat 0.470Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
- +$4.6kat 0.540Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?
- +$4.4kat 0.560Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
- +$4.4kat 0.685Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 11:33 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | BUY | 0.45 | $10.8k |
| 08-01 02:51 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.8k |
| 08-01 02:07 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.1k |
| 07-31 15:56 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.0k |
| 07-31 15:56 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.4k |
| 07-31 14:45 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.0k |
| 07-31 14:41 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | BUY | 0.44 | $16.2k |
| 07-31 14:40 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.37 | $11.1k |
| 07-31 08:27 | LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | BUY | 0.59 | $0.53 |
| 07-31 08:24 | LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | BUY | 0.65 | $17.82 |
| 07-31 08:23 | LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | BUY | 0.64 | $130.39 |
| 07-26 08:41 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.36 | $35.6k |
| 07-12 00:30 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.245 | $3.7k |
| 07-11 20:52 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.685 | $9.5k |
| 07-10 10:30 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.265 | $4.0k |