0xcFC40658Dd05c1e1ce7c8b1c2B346BfCC3e2c423-1744120135877
0xcfc40658dd05c1e1ce7c8b1c2b346bfcc3e2c423
- Realised P&L
- $880.85
- Volume
- $23.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $670.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.070 | $633.18 | −$732.96 |
| Will Alberta join the US? · No | 0.960 | 0.979 | $25.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? · No | 0.871 | 0.935 | $11.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.644Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
- +$81.21at 0.330US-China trade deal before June?
- +$22.10at 0.583NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers
- +$7.29at 0.775Oilers vs. Ducks
- +$4.74at 0.597Ducks vs. Oilers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 04:37 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1156315956 | $5.00 |
| 06-30 01:21 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1009999829 | $5.00 |
| 06-24 01:30 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1069999831 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 21:14 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.125 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 01:42 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1424786564 | $10.00 |
| 06-09 03:21 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1527729172 | $100.00 |
| 06-09 00:04 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1498882609 | $90.00 |
| 06-08 23:58 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1487768223 | $10.00 |
| 06-05 21:19 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1427253713 | $30.00 |
| 06-05 20:53 | Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? | BUY | 0.8799999413 | $6.00 |
| 06-05 20:50 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1414132289 | $100.00 |
| 06-05 20:49 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.0k |
| 06-05 18:02 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1384822303 | $25.00 |
| 06-05 15:10 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1796442798 | $5.00 |
| 06-05 15:00 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.1994017946 | $5.00 |