0xcFc09EEEa764D31798237c1cfE1C82e36519BbB4-1768452077879
0xcfc09eeea764d31798237c1cfe1c82e36519bbb4
- Realised P&L
- $-353.09
- Volume
- $21.5k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $15.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October? · No | 0.929 | 0.941 | $15.13 | +$0.18 |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$0.05 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? · No | 0.574 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.97 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 26? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| James Comey arrested by April 28? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$314.46 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? · No | 0.776 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.25at 0.830Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?
- +$21.35at 0.054Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats
- +$20.21at 0.994Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
- +$18.90at 0.938Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
- +$13.23at 0.927Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:57 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October? | BUY | 0.9289999983 | $14.95 |
| 09-20 08:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.6699999881 | $17.97 |
| 09-14 07:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.21 | $19.00 |
| 09-03 14:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999962 | $55.21 |
| 09-01 10:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.42 | $57.85 |
| 08-29 09:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5799999983 | $79.89 |
| 08-29 09:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.984 | $81.72 |
| 08-26 12:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.8789999889 | $73.00 |
| 08-25 03:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.5555856944 | $75.89 |
| 08-21 23:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7169999993 | $97.94 |
| 08-20 00:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7759999987 | $98.22 |
| 08-14 09:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9 | $314.46 |
| 07-31 08:24 | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.38 | $0.40 |
| 07-31 08:24 | Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.915 | $0.92 |
| 07-21 23:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 22? | SELL | 0.08 | $14.84 |