Margaret5729
0xcf9254714b07f85de9125fa845bdc802cf8af063
- Realised P&L
- $-14.34
- Volume
- $18.0k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $19.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ebuka Okorie win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $13.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $6.40 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.45at 0.004 Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League?
- +$1.27at 0.710Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble" first?
- +$0.85at 0.994Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29?
- +$0.41at 0.997Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August?
- +$0.28at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 06:29 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.40 |
| 09-13 11:22 | Will Ebuka Okorie win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.00 |
| 09-08 16:07 | Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $14.99 |
| 09-05 10:43 | Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |
| 09-04 00:21 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $6.69 |
| 09-02 13:07 | Will LA Galaxy win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.994 | $8.57 |
| 09-02 13:06 | Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.996 | $10.67 |
| 09-01 09:33 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.70 |
| 08-30 10:46 | Will LA Galaxy win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $8.60 |
| 08-25 09:26 | Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.70 |
| 08-25 07:48 | Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 07:47 | Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.10 |
| 08-25 07:46 | Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.90 |
| 08-25 07:45 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.30 |
| 08-25 07:44 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $13.48 |