mm0001
0xcf8a195e846ef2ba8e088c7c468318d23db9f50b
- Realised P&L
- $-477.73
- Volume
- $18.6k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $174.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.576 | 0.065 | $112.81 | −$887.19 |
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.066 | $61.27 | −$114.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$169.48at 0.789Will Berachain's FDV be $3-5b 1 day after launch?
- +$153.85at 0.520MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$138.98at 0.590Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
- +$67.67at 0.888Will Berachain launch a token in January?
- +$66.67at 0.600Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-10 08:26 | Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.189591109 | $176.01 |
| 01-10 08:26 | Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5762087194 | $1000.00 |
| 01-10 08:21 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.92 | $353.84 |
| 12-04 11:41 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7799999996 | $166.67 |
| 11-08 10:10 | USD0 depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.9199999958 | $167.80 |
| 11-08 10:09 | USD1 depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.9401275614 | $200.00 |
| 11-08 10:09 | USDTb depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.9373681354 | $200.00 |
| 11-08 10:04 | Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $100.00 |
| 11-08 10:02 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5199999996 | $200.00 |
| 10-28 02:37 | Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | BUY | 0.769999999 | $165.57 |
| 10-09 12:44 | Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $91.93 |
| 10-09 12:44 | Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6039609937 | $100.00 |
| 10-09 12:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | BUY | 0.5699999975 | $200.00 |
| 10-09 12:38 | Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 9? | BUY | 0.064 | $10.00 |
| 10-09 12:37 | Will Base launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.0749827833 | $100.00 |