0xCF8860F26D88CA2e5920fF881c29231eB9863897-1769444265090
0xcf8860f26d88ca2e5920ff881c29231eb9863897
- Realised P&L
- $-54.85
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $10.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.650 | $5.38 | +$0.00 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 14+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.465 | $4.25 | −$0.05 |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $0.51 | −$2.19 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.041 | $0.24 | −$0.76 |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.002 | $0.02 | −$1.63 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.90at 0.720Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$4.02at 0.499Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
- +$3.81at 0.360Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
- +$3.42at 0.467Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
- +$3.03at 0.630Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 11:22 | Will Trump say "Hell" 14+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.4699999809 | $2.95 |
| 10-16 09:14 | Will Trump say "Hell" 14+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.35 |
| 10-15 23:29 | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 15:56 | Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.6499999638 | $5.38 |
| 10-15 15:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.27 | $7.37 |
| 04-27 21:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4399999883 | $12.01 |
| 04-15 20:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | BUY | 0.1899998902 | $1.19 |
| 04-15 20:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $1.81 |
| 04-14 18:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | SELL | 0.67 | $5.47 |
| 04-14 18:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999475 | $2.72 |
| 04-14 18:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4799999568 | $3.70 |
| 04-14 18:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $0.87 |
| 04-14 18:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.119999952 | $1.75 |
| 04-14 18:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $2.60 |
| 04-14 18:06 | Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.33 |