on09
0xcf4dab1c7fe0ef23dca42bdfd857dd3c5cbccb2d
- Realised P&L
- $547.34
- Volume
- $990.7k
- Markets traded
- 157
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded157
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration50.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.999 | $658.64 | +$0.66 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.986 | $404.92 | +$31.18 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.999 | $315.32 | +$0.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.909Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 8?
- +$1.1kat 0.960Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 23?
- +$367.33at 0.973Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7?
- +$277.68at 0.588Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?
- +$218.99at 0.995Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 01:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.9092311686 | $192.65 |
| 05-10 13:22 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? | SELL | 0.998 | $98.42 |
| 05-10 13:07 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? | SELL | 0.998 | $74.13 |
| 05-10 10:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.991 | $4.96 |
| 05-10 08:49 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 10? | SELL | 0.988 | $69.16 |
| 05-10 08:04 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.944 | $100.20 |
| 05-10 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.94 | $465.11 |
| 05-10 08:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.98 | $68.60 |
| 05-10 07:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.5779545455 | $25.43 |
| 05-10 07:53 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.5394285714 | $45.31 |
| 05-10 06:32 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.961 | $0.77 |
| 05-10 06:26 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.96 | $13.86 |
| 05-09 02:48 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? | BUY | 0.994 | $19.98 |
| 05-08 18:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? | BUY | 0.9948983258 | $243.65 |
| 05-08 17:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.0k |