bettoooooooooooooor
0xcf457b6e99229e08ca8f924ee823b4f2adf3fe62
- Realised P&L
- $255.69
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $396.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.518 | 0.598 | $115.35 | +$15.35 |
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? · No | 0.554 | 0.675 | $97.41 | +$17.41 |
| OpenAI announces a full training pause in 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.643 | $71.50 | −$28.50 |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.967 | 0.980 | $50.65 | +$0.65 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? · No | 0.959 | 0.939 | $23.49 | −$0.51 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.024 | $11.75 | +$1.75 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.957 | 0.966 | $10.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.985 | 0.991 | $10.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.115 | $5.75 | −$4.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$169.47at 0.469Pavel Durov released in August?
- +$145.66at 0.904Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024?
- +$64.95at 0.617Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$30.76at 0.907Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024?
- +$28.21at 0.780Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 16:59 | Paris curfew by October 19? | SELL | 0.868 | $14.46 |
| 10-19 11:54 | Paris curfew by October 19? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 11:53 | Paris curfew by October 31? | BUY | 0.599999994 | $20.00 |
| 10-19 11:53 | Paris curfew by October 21? | BUY | 0.3579999858 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 11:52 | Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 07:33 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5179999975 | $100.00 |
| 10-18 18:09 | France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.98 |
| 10-15 09:37 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.984999999 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 09:36 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 09:36 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.02 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 09:33 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.9569999811 | $10.00 |
| 10-12 05:54 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.967 | $50.00 |
| 09-25 06:31 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.985 | $25.58 |
| 09-25 06:27 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | BUY | 0.9588254388 | $24.00 |
| 09-25 06:24 | OpenAI announces a full training pause in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $100.00 |