Pvelyas
0xcef7b865b63bcfebbcf6f2e4ffb4ac9be29c5a08
- Realised P&L
- $151.11
- Volume
- $30.3k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $238.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.131 | 0.098 | $149.62 | −$50.38 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.085 | $89.07 | −$40.93 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? · Yes | 0.242 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$726.14at 0.210Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
- +$404.79at 0.270Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
- +$404.12at 0.331US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$348.72at 0.145Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$213.16at 0.190Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 22:02 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY | 0.1240658348 | $130.00 |
| 08-17 22:02 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1309999995 | $200.00 |
| 03-23 01:18 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.3310602148 | $200.00 |
| 03-23 01:18 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.1399999993 | $150.00 |
| 03-19 16:08 | Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 03-19 15:59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | BUY | 0.2425481919 | $200.00 |
| 03-19 15:58 | Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $100.00 |
| 03-19 15:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.3002421302 | $300.00 |
| 03-19 15:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $100.00 |
| 02-28 11:48 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.991 | $408.72 |
| 02-28 11:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.54 | $212.11 |
| 02-27 12:50 | Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.2703729205 | $150.00 |
| 02-27 12:49 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.1454782396 | $60.00 |
| 02-20 01:36 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999975 | $50.00 |
| 02-20 01:26 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $100.00 |