spamabunch
0xced2fb16502b6c9ddd7238ad11c3fb82f1721076
- Realised P&L
- $-26.3k
- Volume
- $1.61M
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $808.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.9kat 0.684US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.0kat 0.550Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?
- +$2.3kat 0.651Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$1.6kat 0.683US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
- +$1.1kat 0.213Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 16:23 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.8165447059 | $104.11 |
| 06-19 13:20 | Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | SELL | 0.9816751111 | $397.58 |
| 06-19 13:20 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.5k |
| 06-17 23:00 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7821176471 | $99.72 |
| 06-17 22:53 | Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? | BUY | 0.9488736897 | $362.09 |
| 06-17 22:51 | Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? | BUY | 0.9450909091 | $103.96 |
| 06-17 22:51 | Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? | BUY | 0.937 | $64.57 |
| 06-17 22:44 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | BUY | 0.963 | $945.10 |
| 06-17 22:43 | Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY | 0.9598259002 | $348.65 |
| 06-17 22:43 | Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 06-17 22:39 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.41 | $7.38 |
| 06-17 22:36 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.581 | $58.10 |
| 06-17 22:35 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.58 | $1.5k |
| 06-17 22:33 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | BUY | 0.956 | $480.28 |
| 06-17 20:50 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | SELL | 0.0507413998 | $5.13 |