M1nus
0xcecf8d78b602799aededfc3bbc61a1aeea78e9cd
- Realised P&L
- $-125.65
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $170.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.67at 0.300Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?
- +$24.41at 0.170Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$17.63at 0.819Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$13.15at 0.690Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
- +$12.79at 0.190US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-30 18:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 18:23 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $10.00 |
| 05-30 18:23 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 03-02 02:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 01-28 15:25 | Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | BUY | 0.7299999827 | $8.00 |
| 01-24 01:47 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 01-24 01:46 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999842 | $10.00 |
| 01-24 01:45 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.181 | $2.22 |
| 01-20 19:30 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.0839999294 | $1.00 |
| 01-19 22:36 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999272 | $3.00 |
| 01-19 22:35 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY | 0.5799999265 | $3.00 |
| 01-19 22:34 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1199999748 | $4.00 |
| 01-15 18:47 | Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | BUY | 0.4899999951 | $3.00 |
| 01-13 17:18 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 01-13 17:14 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $11.00 |