jkrjjrs
0xcec8f08c5d03e718da92178aa102181fa7a753fc
- Realised P&L
- $6.97
- Volume
- $548.74
- Markets traded
- 122
- Open portfolio
- $0.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded122
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 8? · Yes | 0.489 | 0.030 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 on October 8? · Yes | 0.685 | 0.025 | $0.04 | −$0.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.26at 0.577Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?
- +$6.19at 0.590Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
- +$3.12at 0.249Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?
- +$3.10at 0.669Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?
- +$1.94at 0.340Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 17:48 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $1.25 |
| 10-08 17:45 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.12 |
| 10-08 17:43 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.780999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.4889999462 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:35 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 on October 8? | BUY | 0.6849997911 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:08 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:38 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.8879993109 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 17:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.96 |
| 10-02 17:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $0.97 |
| 10-02 16:31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 on October 2? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 16:22 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.03 |
| 10-02 16:22 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.38 |
| 10-02 16:21 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 08:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |