0xcec4431d35fa4bdeabfc6aa90cbc786fb8ca9258
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $299.9k
- Markets traded
- 1,444
- Open portfolio
- $1.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,444
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.028 | $0.55 | −$1.05 |
| Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? · No | 0.270 | 0.215 | $0.32 | −$0.08 |
| Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.018 | $0.16 | −$0.38 |
| Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.181 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.18 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.50 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.64 |
| Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$511.23at 0.047Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
- +$343.85at 0.706Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?
- +$287.79at 0.023Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21?
- +$188.47at 0.678Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- +$169.84at 0.037Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 02:21 | Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season? | BUY | 0.6899998439 | $4.20 |
| 05-12 02:18 | Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season? | BUY | 0.6899999345 | $9.80 |
| 05-12 02:18 | Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season? | BUY | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 05-11 21:13 | Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.20 |
| 05-11 20:23 | Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 05-11 19:22 | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460? | SELL | 0.07 | $2.38 |
| 05-11 19:22 | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460? | SELL | 0.86 | $26.66 |
| 05-11 19:18 | Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.79 |
| 05-11 18:19 | Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2699999826 | $7.28 |
| 05-11 18:17 | Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2699999594 | $3.92 |
| 05-11 18:08 | Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6799999949 | $15.87 |
| 05-11 17:54 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? | BUY | 0.3599999863 | $12.58 |
| 05-11 17:43 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.50 in May? | SELL | 0.32 | $11.20 |
| 05-11 17:41 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.50 in May? | SELL | 0.64 | $21.76 |
| 05-11 17:39 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.50 in May? | BUY | 0.3599999863 | $12.58 |