Rustyrigalson1980
0xce9da28a42e485654586fb062b3f8beb86b8a219
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $222.3k
- Markets traded
- 548
- Open portfolio
- $25.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded548
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New York Giants win the 2026 NFC East? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.225 | $25.56 | +$0.56 |
| Spread: Lakers (-4.5) · Lakers | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bruins vs. Sabres · Sabres | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.51 |
| Avalanche vs. Jets · Avalanche | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5 · Yes | 0.539 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.15 |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 16.5 · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$105.00 |
| Will J.J. Spaun finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational? · Yes | 0.473 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.55 |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders · Islanders | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Stars vs. Wild · Wild | 0.548 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.12 |
| Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Spread: Celtics (-11.5) · Celtics | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.00 |
| US strike on Colombia by March 31? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.311Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage?
- +$864.88at 0.103Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$761.68at 0.195UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
- +$394.50at 0.267US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$362.78at 0.502Oilers vs. Ducks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 16:11 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.5399999993 | $161.45 |
| 06-11 23:41 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | BUY | 0.5899999984 | $96.69 |
| 06-09 23:02 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | BUY | 0.5 | $126.28 |
| 06-09 23:00 | Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | SELL | 0.8001170804 | $227.57 |
| 05-16 16:07 | Sabres vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.619999982 | $11.68 |
| 05-16 16:06 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | SELL | 0.029 | $12.22 |
| 05-16 16:05 | Sabres vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.6199999959 | $45.49 |
| 05-16 16:04 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.072 | $22.27 |
| 05-16 16:04 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $24.67 |
| 05-16 16:04 | Sabres vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.6199999995 | $95.94 |
| 05-16 16:03 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.43 | $97.01 |
| 05-16 16:03 | Sabres vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.6199999998 | $108.98 |
| 05-16 03:33 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | SELL | 0.95 | $110.29 |
| 05-15 22:07 | Sabres vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.6 | $146.61 |
| 05-15 22:06 | Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 | BUY | 0.5499999956 | $50.00 |