Megan5873
0xce9d45a11ef7dfa94e0e16d30fd8ff1a67b8d53b
- Realised P&L
- $4.09
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 433
- Open portfolio
- $18.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded433
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on September 22? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $18.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.53at 0.995Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?
- +$0.43at 0.996Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August?
- +$0.34at 0.997Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?
- +$0.11at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
- +$0.11at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 21:57 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on September 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.00 |
| 09-18 00:22 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.70 |
| 09-17 15:40 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $31.50 |
| 09-11 16:50 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or below on September 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $23.10 |
| 09-11 03:21 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.80 |
| 09-10 19:25 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or below on September 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.10 |
| 09-07 17:33 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on September 8? | BUY | 0.9989999632 | $10.60 |
| 09-06 14:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $33.70 |
| 09-06 07:34 | Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.50 |
| 09-06 01:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.9979999777 | $6.70 |
| 09-05 06:29 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.90 |
| 09-04 23:50 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.00 |
| 09-04 23:13 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on September 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.30 |
| 09-04 14:06 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.10 |
| 09-04 13:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $31.30 |