Elyxzr
0xce8d9df0cb88cb0a631f3b50b1dac25ab21028db
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $55.2k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $22.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$201.40at 0.620Hawks vs. Magic
- +$127.53at 0.640SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
- +$85.00at 0.915Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
- +$28.95at 0.711Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?
- +$27.34at 0.510Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 09:50 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 09-12 13:26 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 08-26 03:04 | Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $3.91 |
| 08-17 10:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 08-17 10:46 | Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? | SELL | 0.4701 | $23.51 |
| 08-09 04:49 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $79.00 |
| 08-08 04:42 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $16.80 |
| 07-26 02:10 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.802 | $16.03 |
| 07-16 08:59 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.964644 | $19.29 |
| 07-04 02:16 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 06-27 17:03 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3? | BUY | 0.963 | $28.89 |
| 06-19 07:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $70.00 |
| 06-02 12:04 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 05-18 07:48 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $41.85 |
| 05-15 01:37 | Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $3.35 |