Kier5527
0xce8a6768dfdf999f14b71bc668cc5aedc6765cd2
- Realised P&L
- $-1.05
- Volume
- $27.1k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $15.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 30? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $15.98 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.41at 0.981Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 1?
- +$0.22at 0.978Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 29?
- +$0.15at 0.989Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12?
- +$0.09at 0.992Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on April 7?
- +$0.07at 0.993Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 09:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $15.95 |
| 08-10 08:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.97 |
| 07-03 04:22 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $7.96 |
| 06-22 08:35 | Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.66 |
| 05-19 04:29 | Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.60 |
| 05-13 03:29 | Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $9.35 |
| 04-25 04:01 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.44 |
| 04-23 08:00 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.68 |
| 04-22 08:51 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.81 |
| 04-21 08:03 | Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.84 |
| 04-20 07:06 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.90 |