0xce835d04e49a7a426b74bc5e1cc24dd0fbdb0fdd
0xce835d04e49a7a426b74bc5e1cc24dd0fbdb0fdd
- Realised P&L
- $-4.48
- Volume
- $156.03
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $6.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.765 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.700 | 0.845 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.810 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.300 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.615 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.580 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.255 | $0.54 | −$0.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.260US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$3.73at 0.217Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 12 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.349SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16?
- +$1.75at 0.369S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16?
- +$1.30at 0.442Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 21:02 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 12:26 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 04:25 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:25 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 11:53 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 00:59 | Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:00 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:32 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:54 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:05 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:49 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:36 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 15:38 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 07:30 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $540 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 23:15 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |