lukasi1
0xce833c6b0b5c5144511b3744aca28b1b7a80ad5b
- Realised P&L
- $-26.56
- Volume
- $229.7k
- Markets traded
- 134
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded134
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on November 2? · Yes | 0.983 | 0.991 | $1.1k | +$7.51 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$386.57 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET · Down | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.69at 0.940LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)
- +$58.95at 0.859Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?
- +$28.85at 0.973Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 29?
- +$16.42at 0.942Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
- +$16.40at 0.936Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 08:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on November 2? | BUY | 0.9834997664 | $1.1k |
| 10-28 12:40 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 29? | BUY | 0.9706851192 | $1.0k |
| 10-27 10:11 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 27? | BUY | 0.9849999995 | $1.0k |
| 10-27 01:58 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on October 26? | BUY | 0.994 | $1.0k |
| 10-26 09:06 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 26? | BUY | 0.9883480475 | $996.00 |
| 08-04 01:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 01:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 01:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 03:41 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2699999996 | $386.57 |
| 07-10 03:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 10? | BUY | 0.9989999977 | $407.64 |
| 06-23 13:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? | BUY | 0.996 | $410.00 |
| 06-17 12:28 | Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2599999966 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 01:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.9971220987 | $460.00 |
| 06-10 12:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? | BUY | 0.9961319112 | $459.00 |
| 06-09 10:53 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? | BUY | 0.9970747665 | $458.00 |