tutrucks
0xce71bed9dd1418abc34d244730879d795e8683bc
- Realised P&L
- $16.7k
- Volume
- $15.03M
- Markets traded
- 171
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded171
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.051 | $2.2k | +$735.74 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.983 | 0.990 | $633.28 | +$4.16 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$81.00 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$116.87 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.888 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.6k |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$272.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$105.4kat 0.857Maduro out in 2025?
- +$98.2kat 0.749Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$87.5kat 0.991MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$61.2kat 0.913Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
- +$54.6kat 0.904Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 23:28 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.983 | $629.12 |
| 09-11 23:26 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.995 | $391.19 |
| 09-11 23:26 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.7542024908 | $242.85 |
| 09-09 15:36 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $455.04 |
| 09-09 15:35 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $261.12 |
| 09-09 15:35 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.992 | $1.0k |
| 08-28 13:55 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.964 | $1.4k |
| 08-22 11:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $32.40 |
| 08-22 11:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4311536684 | $5.3k |
| 08-21 11:23 | Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.59 |
| 08-21 11:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $3.7k |
| 08-18 19:17 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $3.2k |
| 08-18 19:17 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $2.1k |
| 07-23 19:41 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2282647518 | $1.1k |
| 07-23 19:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2303448008 | $3.3k |