Bismarckia
0xce6dc1ac784e5456fc6dc55bd4d9dc5c5f304d2c
- Realised P&L
- $-32.13
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $9.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.73at 0.399Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on September 10?
- +$2.02at 0.090Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 9?
- +$1.67at 0.382Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 9°C on September 10?
- +$1.19at 0.118Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15?
- +$1.18at 0.934Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 23:02 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.17 |
| 09-15 17:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.72 |
| 09-15 17:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.1077041602 | $0.70 |
| 09-15 17:05 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.15 |
| 09-15 17:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.11 | $0.55 |
| 09-15 16:54 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.9648069306 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 16:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.16 | $0.80 |
| 09-15 15:03 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.03 |
| 09-15 15:02 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.11 | $5.25 |
| 09-15 15:02 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.12 | $3.60 |
| 09-15 14:41 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.96 |
| 09-15 14:41 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.03 |
| 09-15 12:12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.098 | $4.90 |
| 09-15 10:22 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.0087750949 | $0.58 |
| 09-10 12:43 | Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 16°C on September 10? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.55 |