AmericanTrad39
0xce63f825e739c48968f1155e20938bd0c6676888
- Realised P&L
- $-40.46
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.81at 0.190Ren Zhengfei public appearance by December 31?
- +$4.79at 0.420Texas State vs. Southern Miss
- +$4.57at 0.250Will William Peña Farfán win the next Cusco mayoral elections?
- +$3.78at 0.360Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?
- +$3.15at 0.350Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 06:42 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.52% in October? | SELL | 0.58 | $12.18 |
| 10-02 16:26 | Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.34 | $7.14 |
| 09-26 14:02 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-04 House election by 30%-35%? | SELL | 0.16 | $4.03 |
| 09-20 02:33 | Ren Zhengfei public appearance by December 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $12.33 |
| 09-10 21:15 | Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.25 |
| 09-07 11:38 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-02 House election by 15%-20%? | SELL | 0.22 | $2.27 |
| 09-05 11:19 | Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $15.54 |
| 09-03 11:51 | Will Rogerio Carvalho win the most votes in the 2026 Sergipe Senate election? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.30 |
| 09-03 04:40 | Will Marc-André Cloutier win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 09-03 00:39 | Will Marc-André Cloutier win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 09-02 21:18 | Will Marc-André Cloutier win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 09-02 20:06 | Will Marc-André Cloutier win the next Maskinongé Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.10 |
| 08-30 02:37 | Will Fabiano Contarato win the second-most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election? | SELL | 0.315 | $7.94 |
| 08-23 22:31 | Will William Peña Farfán win the next Cusco mayoral elections? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.09 |
| 08-19 07:48 | Will William Peña Farfán win the next Cusco mayoral elections? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.44 |