kgf0618
0xce4ac45e9dd95e3913082d29b4f077b2c1b9f704
- Realised P&L
- $-141.94
- Volume
- $29.2k
- Markets traded
- 298
- Open portfolio
- $256.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded298
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$143.49at 0.643Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?
- +$51.86at 0.857Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
- +$51.31at 0.530US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$47.65at 0.907Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?
- +$42.67at 0.870US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 01:59 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.4807031803 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 01:57 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 01:46 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.7399999734 | $5.00 |
| 10-01 17:12 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $6.00 |
| 10-01 17:12 | Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999891 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 17:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.007960199 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:07 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 10-01 10:35 | Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin September 29-October 5? | BUY | 0.8 | $12.00 |
| 10-01 10:35 | Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin September 29-October 5? | BUY | 0.8 | $6.00 |
| 10-01 02:42 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 10-01 02:42 | Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 19:59 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.7318995032 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 19:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999701 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 19:55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7815772441 | $10.00 |
| 09-30 19:44 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $16.40 |