pavlik337
0xce1b991cef5011fb0a7d2c52583caf84c9e8132f
- Realised P&L
- $-192.35
- Volume
- $184.3k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $40.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.058US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$130.33at 0.260Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?
- +$40.46at 0.480Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
- +$29.78at 0.486Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
- +$4.80at 0.120Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-21 22:04 | Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? | BUY | 0.0477967178 | $93.05 |
| 03-14 19:52 | Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $2.64 |
| 03-14 19:50 | Iran leadership change by March 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $44.00 |
| 03-14 19:49 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.17 | $42.50 |
| 03-14 19:48 | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.37 | $74.00 |
| 03-11 21:22 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | BUY | 0.07 | $56.00 |
| 03-11 21:21 | US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $91.79 |
| 03-11 21:19 | Iran leadership change by March 13? | BUY | 0.055 | $33.00 |
| 03-11 21:16 | Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | BUY | 0.096 | $19.20 |
| 03-11 21:15 | US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15? | BUY | 0.22 | $22.06 |
| 03-09 22:20 | Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) | BUY | 0.013 | $11.05 |
| 03-09 22:19 | Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.016 | $6.58 |
| 03-09 22:18 | Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.02799098 | $27.99 |
| 03-09 14:11 | Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) | BUY | 0.009 | $28.80 |
| 03-08 16:39 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | BUY | 0.06 | $18.00 |