Castral
0xcdf2630ba821bf1d2bee02c7b1eecee91c244f56
- Realised P&L
- $-54.04
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $0.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.018 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on October 20? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? · No | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Wizards vs. Thunder · Wizards | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? · Yes | 0.438 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.94 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Solana reach $270 in October? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-30? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.90at 0.250Will Do Kwon be extradited to the United States or South Korea?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 09:12 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on October 20? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 09:06 | Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.0219999997 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:10 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | BUY | 0.438 | $39.94 |
| 10-30 21:12 | Wizards vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 21:12 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-30? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 21:09 | Will Solana reach $270 in October? | BUY | 0.0039227993 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 21:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 21:08 | Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 21:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? | BUY | 0.0789999325 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 15:06 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.0619999428 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 07:52 | Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | BUY | 0.003 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 07:51 | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.0749999869 | $5.00 |