Driver44
0xcde847866e45f1cf6fef0d16ce87d15150fe6da6
- Realised P&L
- $-17.06
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $1.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.875 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.125 | $0.16 | −$0.95 |
| Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.045 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.19 |
| Solana Up or Down - July 14, 10AM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.79at 0.560Will England win the match?
- +$0.47at 0.900Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 US Chess Championship?
- +$0.38at 0.900Will SK win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election?
- +$0.32at 0.760Will Rory McIlroy win another major in 2025?
- +$0.04at 0.975Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 05:41 | Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 10-31 05:40 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.994 | $299.69 |
| 10-31 05:39 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $202.48 |
| 10-28 10:07 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9975697608 | $202.00 |
| 10-28 10:07 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.9957078218 | $201.13 |
| 10-28 10:07 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $202.00 |
| 10-28 10:06 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.995 | $300.00 |
| 05-30 05:35 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $80.31 |
| 05-30 05:35 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $77.91 |
| 05-28 06:40 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.00 |
| 05-28 06:39 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $80.00 |
| 05-28 06:39 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $79.36 |
| 05-28 06:38 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $80.00 |
| 04-27 06:08 | Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $205.22 |
| 04-27 06:07 | Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $174.65 |