0xcDB0254422C3F95922094650D8dB94CbE0f13070-1759730234333
0xcdb0254422c3f95922094650d8db94cbe0f13070
- Realised P&L
- $63.59
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $75.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.580 | $49.15 | −$0.85 |
| Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.470 | $16.21 | +$6.21 |
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.695 | $10.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? · No | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? · No | 0.593 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? · No | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? · Yes | 0.496 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.75 |
| Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.03at 0.370Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 27?
- +$29.46at 0.328MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2?
- +$26.14at 0.789Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$21.60at 0.620Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$18.84at 0.690Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 16:16 | Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.27 | $15.48 |
| 10-18 16:16 | Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.6770041417 | $14.71 |
| 10-15 20:04 | Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? | SELL | 0.6453211707 | $16.98 |
| 10-15 20:03 | Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 20:03 | Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 20:02 | Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 19:03 | Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.459999988 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 19:02 | Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 19:01 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.589999998 | $50.00 |
| 10-15 19:00 | Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2615440076 | $15.00 |
| 05-21 14:55 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $14.69 |
| 05-21 14:55 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $16.66 |
| 03-03 14:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0290000002 | $5.00 |
| 02-27 14:47 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 27? | SELL | 0.9474002812 | $128.02 |
| 02-26 20:41 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 27? | BUY | 0.3699999957 | $50.00 |