adam3113
0xcdaecc4228636b62bacf053fce2eee34a95acbe4
- Realised P&L
- $-38.79
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $787.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.540 | $305.45 | +$45.45 |
| Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.375 | $232.99 | +$75.24 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? · Yes | 0.712 | 0.820 | $218.95 | +$28.95 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.191 | $25.82 | −$12.12 |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? · Yamal | 0.392 | 0.300 | $3.83 | −$1.17 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.08 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET · Up | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET · Up | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.77at 0.331Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
- +$1.66at 0.859Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
- +$0.94at 0.636Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
- +$0.40at 0.903Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$-0.01at 0.980Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 17:27 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.3921568627 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 22:43 | Will Kylian Mbappé attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.7115734717 | $190.00 |
| 10-18 22:27 | Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.3799999972 | $30.00 |
| 10-18 22:26 | Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.4596464258 | $260.00 |
| 10-18 22:17 | Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.2569169955 | $50.00 |
| 10-18 21:57 | Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.2235871628 | $77.75 |
| 10-18 21:51 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.268999999 | $30.00 |
| 07-20 22:47 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.3309999777 | $7.94 |
| 06-14 21:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.7199999856 | $10.00 |
| 06-14 21:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $10.00 |
| 06-13 21:33 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5899999896 | $13.00 |
| 06-12 21:13 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.164 | $1.48 |
| 06-12 21:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | SELL | 0.1 | $0.47 |
| 06-12 21:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 06-10 18:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |