rakuton
0xcd90fe632f3068abe89a15503a22c364db494bfc
- Realised P&L
- $8.6k
- Volume
- $245.1k
- Markets traded
- 1,746
- Open portfolio
- $482.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,746
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.101Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?
- +$694.31at 0.009Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on July 26?
- +$600.26at 0.287Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 21?
- +$575.01at 0.016Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22?
- +$436.88at 0.336Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 10:14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.2589944442 | $70.39 |
| 09-18 09:35 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.1553383058 | $5.83 |
| 09-18 07:27 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.2573596293 | $47.76 |
| 09-18 06:57 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.4496825397 | $141.65 |
| 09-18 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.80 |
| 09-17 15:20 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.0681206497 | $1.76 |
| 09-17 12:19 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.2943977523 | $12.05 |
| 09-17 11:57 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.2783349983 | $8.36 |
| 09-17 07:17 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.3773205996 | $106.48 |
| 09-17 06:41 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.20 |
| 09-17 06:34 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.22 | $24.20 |
| 09-17 06:20 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.340819605 | $41.58 |
| 09-16 13:50 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.2010950612 | $14.62 |
| 09-16 10:50 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 16? | SELL | 0.2340515933 | $9.25 |
| 09-16 10:41 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 16? | SELL | 0.29 | $5.86 |