PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

rakuton

0xcd90fe632f3068abe89a15503a22c364db494bfc

Realised P&L
$8.6k
Volume
$245.1k
Markets traded
1,746
Open portfolio
$482.02

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded1,746
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 18? · Yes0.4390.495$248.48+$28.30
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 18? · Yes0.2590.280$76.10+$5.71
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 18? · Yes0.2270.185$63.34$14.40
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 18? · Yes0.1760.260$55.69+$17.99
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 18? · Yes0.0820.130$29.67+$10.92
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on September 18? · Yes0.0770.115$8.74+$2.88
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on July 31? · Yes0.3900.000$0.00$48.70
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? · Yes0.0990.000$0.00$4.43
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 3? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$10.35
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 29? · Yes0.2470.000$0.00$267.17
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 28? · No0.4580.000$0.00$59.20
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 12? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$11.26
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 14? · Yes0.0810.000$0.00$5.79
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 17? · Yes0.4100.000$0.00$75.44
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 1? · Yes0.5500.000$0.00$53.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-18 10:14Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 18?BUY0.2589944442$70.39
09-18 09:35Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 18?BUY0.1553383058$5.83
09-18 07:27Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 18?BUY0.2573596293$47.76
09-18 06:57Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 18?BUY0.4496825397$141.65
09-18 06:10Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 18?BUY0.07$0.80
09-17 15:20Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17?BUY0.0681206497$1.76
09-17 12:19Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 17?BUY0.2943977523$12.05
09-17 11:57Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17?BUY0.2783349983$8.36
09-17 07:17Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17?BUY0.3773205996$106.48
09-17 06:41Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on September 17?BUY0.007$1.20
09-17 06:34Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on September 17?BUY0.22$24.20
09-17 06:20Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 17?BUY0.340819605$41.58
09-16 13:50Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 16?BUY0.2010950612$14.62
09-16 10:50Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 16?SELL0.2340515933$9.25
09-16 10:41Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 16?SELL0.29$5.86