gift
0xcd846d41c85f897341ea6ae1fbcc001a335c4f9c
- Realised P&L
- $-272.45
- Volume
- $123.1k
- Markets traded
- 470
- Open portfolio
- $0.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded470
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.095 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? · No | 0.312 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.40 |
| Knicks vs. Mavericks · Mavericks | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.09 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians · Cincinnati Reds | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.01 |
| Pistons vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.85 |
| 76ers vs. Nets · Nets | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.88 |
| Clippers vs. Cavaliers · Clippers | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.73 |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.30 |
| Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Thunder vs. Spurs · Thunder | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Lakers vs. Jazz · Jazz | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.33 |
| Warriors vs. Jazz · Jazz | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.17 |
| Jazz vs. Warriors · Jazz | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.32 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.82at 0.008Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$60.46at 0.011Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
- +$50.91at 0.44076ers vs. Clippers
- +$46.64at 0.550Capitals vs. Flyers
- +$41.21at 0.660LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 08:05 | U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? | SELL | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | SELL | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.275 | $1.38 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.575 | $4.23 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6 | $4.43 |
| 07-02 08:05 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.39 | $3.06 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.834 | $7.06 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.5 | $4.57 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | SELL | 0.68 | $6.80 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.288 | $3.84 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | SELL | 0.2 | $3.00 |
| 07-02 08:05 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $3.75 |