0xcd787ed158bb7b52b6e60e90ab907e55fdace47a
- Realised P&L
- $22.03
- Volume
- $300.89
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $10.89
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.720 | $5.33 | +$3.33 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 18? · Up | 0.510 | 0.495 | $1.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.725 | $1.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.185 | $1.68 | −$0.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$6.63at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
- +$4.07at 0.337Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?
- +$3.71at 0.350US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 01:09 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 17:07 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 08:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 11:33 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 03:33 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 18:46 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 07:52 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 08:30 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 00:05 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 15:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 06:45 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 21:39 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 12:52 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 13:52 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 10:48 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |