0xCd64A3BCd71F6E255524e54D51789E98D22bb1b3-1759291329437
0xcd64a3bcd71f6e255524e54d51789e98d22bb1b3
- Realised P&L
- $7.9k
- Volume
- $1.14M
- Markets traded
- 195
- Open portfolio
- $18.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded195
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.900 | 0.945 | $17.9k | +$852.02 |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8.5B by October 31? · No | 0.840 | 0.985 | $155.83 | +$22.94 |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31? · No | 0.989 | 0.990 | $115.21 | +$0.06 |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15.5B by October 31? · No | 0.987 | 0.980 | $87.99 | −$0.65 |
| StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.988 | 0.986 | $9.86 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.740Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova
- +$576.05at 0.993Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$387.02at 0.963Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
- +$327.43at 0.969US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien
- +$310.60at 0.935Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 18:26 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8.5B by October 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $132.89 |
| 10-26 18:22 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31? | BUY | 0.9889754359 | $115.15 |
| 10-26 18:22 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by October 31? | SELL | 0.9464440164 | $230.93 |
| 10-21 20:54 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15.5B by October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $60.39 |
| 10-21 20:52 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by October 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $229.36 |
| 10-15 07:49 | StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.988 | $9.88 |
| 10-09 05:36 | Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.941 | $235.94 |
| 10-09 03:42 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | SELL | 0.952 | $238.00 |
| 10-07 01:19 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.9763756906 | $176.72 |
| 10-06 20:44 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.9808333333 | $117.70 |
| 10-01 02:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.9k |
| 10-01 02:50 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by September 30? | BUY | 0.9925001216 | $367.31 |
| 09-30 20:50 | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by September 30? | BUY | 0.9963023191 | $357.01 |
| 09-25 06:23 | Singapore Open: Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska | BUY | 0.96 | $569.45 |
| 09-21 05:39 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September? | BUY | 0.99375 | $397.50 |