drsmith.ortho
0xcd49921e1447073e96154bce49d5d629c117682c
- Realised P&L
- $5.54
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $236.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.958 | $59.88 | +$1.13 |
| Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.956 | 0.949 | $47.77 | −$0.38 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat? · Yes | 0.958 | 0.964 | $46.89 | +$0.27 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? · No | 0.940 | 0.861 | $43.36 | −$4.01 |
| Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · No | 0.983 | 0.952 | $39.01 | −$1.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.54at 0.935Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
- +$1.19at 0.971Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.51at 0.990Will Petr Yan fight Song Yadong next?
- +$0.51at 0.966Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- +$0.42at 0.950Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 12:57 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9353288807 | $22.30 |